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Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation

66K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.8%

40%55%
Floor46.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 66K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 66K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
66K
Best context
51.5% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
44.0% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
93.7%
Draws
6.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.5% at 0-999, 52.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (6,156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (3,644 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (909 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (4,449 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (3,814 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (2,599 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (404 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (1,374 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (4,443 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (1,891 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (220 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (1,739 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (7,519 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,227 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,590 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (9,216 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (2,338 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (980 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (3,840 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (301 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (335 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation scores 46.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.5% and 47.1% — from 66K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
66K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate?

Playing the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation, Black wins 43.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 66K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation perform best?

The Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.7% in Blitz (40K games) against 47.8% in Rapid (16K games).

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation?

The Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 7.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 7.2% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.1%, draws 7.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.0%, draws 8.2% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 689 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.1%, draws 7.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.8%, draws 8.0% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.6% of its games and loses 50.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.