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Analyzer

Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.2%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 51.6%Based on 30K games
0%51.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 51.6%
Outcome Distribution
48.6%5.1%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...Nh6
Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense
Analyzen=30K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 51.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 51.6%), based on 30K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.1% win rate (1,650 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.1% win rate (628 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.8% win rate (602 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.0% win rate (1,061 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (2,159 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (5,230 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (8,353 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (8,368 games)
  • 2500+: 45.2% win rate (2,363 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.2% win rate (99 games)
  • Bullet: 48.1% win rate (11,063 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (16,607 games)
  • Rapid: 50.0% win rate (2,501 games)
  • Classical: 48.5% win rate (144 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (251 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (769 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (618 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (255 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (203 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (182 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (264 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (127 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (399 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (506 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (669 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,231 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,125 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,551 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (503 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (2,292 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (5,553 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (4,219 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (3,914 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (224 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,782 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (564 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate?

The Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense perform best?

The Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.1%) outperforms Classical (42.3%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense?

The Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 40.7% (90% CI: 38.7%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 628 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 602 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.8%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.5%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.6%-43.8%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

What is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense has a 42.3% (90% CI: 35.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (144 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense is statistically balanced with a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.