Italian Game: Scotch Gambit

99K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Play This

White Expected Score57.0%Range (90% confident): 56.7% – 57.3%Based on 99K games

0%57.0%100%

Range (90% confident): 56.7% – 57.3%

Outcome Distribution

55.3%3.4%41.3%

Win

Draw

Loss

5.O-O

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit

Analyzen=99K

Avg Length29 moves

Sharpness97%

Draw Rate3.4%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 57.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.7% and 57.3%), based on 99K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +21.3% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 51% → 60%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Bullet (54%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,231 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (908 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (366 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,012 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (3,196 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,135 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (42 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (4,227 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (6,126 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,614 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (45 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 79.8% expected score (27 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (4,572 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (8,856 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (4,013 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (153 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (5,631 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (10,330 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (4,348 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (258 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (5,293 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (10,459 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (3,762 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (238 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (4,352 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (5,990 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (1,863 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (81 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (3,000 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (1,282 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (356 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (621 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 77.0% expected score (30 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Italian Game

55.0%

Variations (5)

Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense

51.3%

Italian Game: Bird's Attack

47.2%

Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit

46.9%

Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit

44.3%

Italian Game: Classical Variation

51.6%

Continuations (10)

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Anderssen Attack

47.6%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Anderssen Attack, Main Line

49.2%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation

49.2%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense

50.0%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Double Gambit Accepted

46.3%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense

48.9%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack

46.8%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack Accepted

54.3%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation

50.2%

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Spielmann Defense

57.8%

Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.3% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 99K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 60.3% win rate for white (654 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (59.3%) by 0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.9%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.1%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 60.3% (90% CI: 57.2%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 654 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 59.3% (90% CI: 52.5%-66.0%) win rate for white (141 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.4%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.1%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.8%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 59.7% (90% CI: 56.8%-62.5%) win rate for white (790 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit is statistically favors white with a 55.3% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit expected score for White?