Does Italian Game: Scotch Gambit work for White at All Ratings?
Snapshot
At All Ratings, Italian Game: Scotch Gambit gives White a +13.4% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is effective.
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit
White GambitSource Lichess
View As
Play This+13%All Ratings
Minimum Advantage+13.4%
White wins at least 13.4% more often than loses
Rating TrendPeak: +21.3% at 2500+
Win%55.3%
Games99K
Breakpoint (Overall)Never
5.O-O
Italian Game: Scotch GambitWhite Gambit
Rating
Time Control
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +2.0% | 51.3% | 2.6% | 46.0% | 2.5K |
| 1000-1199 | +8.2% | 54.0% | 2.2% | 43.9% | 7.4K |
| 1200-1399 | +10.3% | 54.6% | 2.5% | 42.9% | 13K |
| 1400-1599 | +14.3% | 56.3% | 2.9% | 40.8% | 18K |
| 1600-1799 | +12.5% | 55.2% | 3.3% | 41.5% | 21K |
| 1800-1999 | +12.9% | 55.1% | 4.0% | 41.0% | 20K |
| 2000-2199 | +15.6% | 56.2% | 4.8% | 39.1% | 12K |
| 2200-2499 | +13.4% | 55.3% | 5.2% | 39.5% | 4.6K |
| 2500+ | +21.3% | 60.3% | 6.8% | 32.9% | 654 |
Full Opening StatsSee rating/time-control breakdowns for White on the opening stats page
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit sound?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has no overall breakpoint in Lichess data, meaning White wins more than loses even at the highest rating brackets across all time controls. This is a statistically sound gambit at all levels analyzed.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.3% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.5%) win rate for White overall, with a 3.4% draw rate and 41.3% loss rate. This is based on 99K games from Lichess.
What is the best rating to play the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit performs best at 2500+, where White has a minimum advantage of +21.3%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 21.3 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Classical (+20.5% edge) outperforms UltraBullet (+6.0% edge) by 14.5 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit breakpoint vary by time control?
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: 0-999, Blitz: Never, Rapid: Never, Classical: Never. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit is extremely sharp with only 3.4% draws—96.6% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
Should I play the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit is viable at all rating levels in Lichess data. White maintains a statistical edge throughout. It's an excellent choice if you enjoy sharp, initiative-based play.
How do I defend against the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit is statistically challenging to defend at all levels. As Black, focus on quick development, early castling, and piece trades. Don't get greedy with extra material. Consider declining the gambit or finding a transposition if you're uncomfortable with sharp positions.
How reliable is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit data?
This analysis is based on 99K games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.