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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit

45 variations · 9.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Blackmar-Diemer Gambit gives White a 52.7% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 5.3%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score52.7%Aggregated from 45 variationsWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%52.7%60%
Tight estimate: 52.7% (±0.1%, huge sample)
Min adv+5.3%
ContextOverall · n=9.4M
Outcome Distribution
3...Nf6
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
Variations45
Games (Context)9.4M
Avg Length30 moves
Draw Rate3.3%

Games (Context) — games matching the current filter

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 52.7%), aggregated from 45 variations and 9.4M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (637,158 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.2% win rate (808,487 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (1,130,924 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.3% win rate (1,554,134 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (1,828,763 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.0% win rate (1,773,232 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (1,087,282 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.0% win rate (478,528 games)
  • 2500+: 52.2% win rate (66,485 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.6% win rate (66,453 games)
  • Bullet: 51.7% win rate (3,659,373 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (4,122,277 games)
  • Rapid: 49.4% win rate (1,472,127 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (44,763 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (1,454 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (154,982 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (319,633 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (159,450 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (1,639 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (3,025 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (234,052 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (393,327 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (174,052 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (4,031 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (6,220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (368,655 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (529,030 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (220,193 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (6,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (17,380 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (503,072 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (745,842 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (276,579 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (11,261 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (24,256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (649,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (834,402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (309,277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (11,412 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (9,603 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (722,012 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (796,408 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (237,699 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (7,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (3,273 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (601,724 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (398,450 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (81,861 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (1,974 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (365,562 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (98,825 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (12,920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (59,898 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (6,360 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (96 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (45)

Ranked by Min adv — the worst-case edge over 50% we're 90% confident you keep.

1
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Teichmann Defense, Ciesielski Variation9.6K games
63.2%min +24.8%
2
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Euwe Defense486K games
60.2%min +20.2%
3
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Teichmann Defense, Seidel-Hall Attack7.0K games
59.4%min +16.8%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Teichmann Defense, Classical Variation45K games
58.4%min +16.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Ziegler Defense220K games
56.9%min +13.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense280K games
56.6%min +12.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit, Sneiders Attack10K games
57.0%min +12.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Ritter Defense10K games
56.5%min +11.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Ryder Gambit612K games
55.6%min +11.0%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation514K games
55.6%min +10.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Pietrowsky Defense184K games
55.0%min +9.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Teichmann Defense503K games
54.9%min +9.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: O'Kelly Defense258K games
55.0%min +9.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Schlutter Defense5.9K games
55.8%min +9.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit, Rasmussen Attack4.6K games
55.5%min +8.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense440K games
54.3%min +8.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubow Defense, Studier Attack7.6K games
53.8%min +5.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit652K games
52.8%min +5.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit1.1M games
52.5%min +4.8%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense4.0K games
53.7%min +4.8%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted59K games
52.7%min +4.5%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Kaulich Defense19K games
53.0%min +4.5%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Euwe Defense, Zilbermints Gambit308 games
56.0%min +2.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Langeheinicke Defense62K games
51.6%min +2.5%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Vienna Defense281K games
51.0%min +1.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Holwell Defense1.2K games
52.6%min +0.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Rasa-Studier Gambit131K games
50.1%min -0.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit, Lange Gambit53K games
50.2%min -0.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Reversed Albin Countergambit100K games
50.1%min -0.5%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit2.3M games
49.7%min -0.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit55K games
49.9%min -0.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Lamb Defense171K games
49.7%min -1.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit, Soller Attack13K games
50.1%min -1.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Brombacher Countergambit39K games
49.7%min -1.5%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Diemer-Rosenberg Attack114K games
49.4%min -1.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubow Defense, Mad Dog Attack740 games
51.8%min -2.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit, Endgame Variation56K games
49.0%min -2.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubow Defense61K games
48.8%min -3.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubow Defense, Nimzowitsch Attack3.6K games
49.7%min -3.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Gunderam Defense92K games
48.7%min -3.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense, Soller Attack38K games
48.5%min -3.8%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack241K games
47.8%min -4.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubow Defense, Kloss Attack924 games
49.7%min -6.0%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Gunderam Defense, Stader Variation1.1K games
49.3%min -6.3%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit123K games
46.2%min -8.1%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit win rate?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family has a 51.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, aggregated from 45 variations and 9.4M rated games from Lichess.

How many Blackmar-Diemer Gambit variations are there?

This analysis covers 45 Blackmar-Diemer Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (1.1M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (45.8%) by 5.9% across all Blackmar-Diemer Gambit variations.

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit?

Blackmar-Diemer Gambit games are 96.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit a good opening family?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.0%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 45 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.