Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
45 variations · 9.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
52.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 9.4M games at this level and clock.
A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.4M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #16 of 56
- Games in this context
- 9.4M
- Best context
- 58.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 36.1% at 0-999 Classical
- Variations measured
- 45
- Average game length
- 30 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.7% at 0-999, 56.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (1,454 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (154,982 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (319,633 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (159,450 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (1,639 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (3,025 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (234,052 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (393,327 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (174,052 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (4,031 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (6,220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (368,655 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (529,030 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (220,193 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (6,826 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (17,380 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (503,072 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (745,842 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (276,579 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (11,261 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (24,256 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (649,416 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (834,402 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (309,277 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (11,412 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (9,603 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (722,012 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (796,408 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (237,699 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (7,510 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (3,273 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (601,724 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (398,450 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (81,861 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (1,974 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (1,112 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (365,562 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (98,825 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (12,920 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (109 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.9% expected score (130 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (59,898 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (6,360 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (96 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
45 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family scores 52.7% for White — we are 90% confident it is 52.7% — from 9.4M Lichess games across 45 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 9.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit win rate?
Across the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit's 45 variations, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 9.4M rated games from Lichess.
How many Blackmar-Diemer Gambit variations are there?
45 Blackmar-Diemer Gambit variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit perform best?
The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (66K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (4.1M games) against 51.5% in Rapid (1.5M games).
How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit?
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit games are 96.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit a good opening family?
The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 51.0% and loses 45.7%. Results differ between its 45 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.