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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense

440K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.8%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 45.9%Based on 440K games
0%45.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 45.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%3.1%52.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bf5
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense
Analyzen=440K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 45.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 45.9%), based on 440K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (25,035 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.5% win rate (39,955 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.4% win rate (64,298 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.9% win rate (96,150 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.5% win rate (100,324 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.4% win rate (72,983 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.3% win rate (30,131 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.7% win rate (9,739 games)
  • 2500+: 43.7% win rate (1,431 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.8% win rate (347 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (109,817 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (228,818 games)
  • Rapid: 43.8% win rate (98,434 games)
  • Classical: 46.6% win rate (2,630 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (5,297 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (13,502 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (6,173 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (9,017 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (21,550 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (9,199 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (14,366 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (34,784 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (14,725 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (19,217 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (53,884 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (22,262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (701 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (20,603 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (53,083 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (25,661 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (896 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (18,770 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (37,153 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (16,623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (393 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (14,354 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (12,197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (3,497 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (6,969 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,460 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (293 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,224 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
48.0%
Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit
50.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit
51.0%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation
54.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack
46.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Rasa-Studier Gambit
48.5%
Continuations (1)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense, Soller Attack
46.9%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 440K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (100K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.0%) outperforms Classical (49.3%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 96K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-59.0%) win rate for white (347 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white (110K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.9%) win rate for white (229K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.8%) win rate for white (98K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.7%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.