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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.5%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
54.1% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
38.0% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.8% at 0-999, 54.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (150 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (21,891 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (35,118 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (14,693 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (134 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (31,679 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (53,595 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (17,134 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (361 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (622 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (46,659 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (75,053 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (22,919 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (538 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (2,200 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (59,701 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (98,825 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (32,935 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (1,168 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (1,481 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (79,830 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (105,410 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (38,613 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,231 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (961 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (90,243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (92,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (28,340 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (812 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (66,575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (36,148 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (10,261 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (30,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (4,579 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (591 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (2,480 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
48.0%
Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit
51.0%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation
54.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense
52.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack
46.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Rasa-Studier Gambit
48.5%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.6% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate?

Playing the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (227K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (501K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (165K games).

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 103K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 195K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 227K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 213K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.4%, draws 1.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 430K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 501K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 165K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.