Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit

652K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
4.Bg5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.8%

45%60%
Floor52.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.9%.

Measured over 652K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 652K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
652K
Best context
56.4% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
46.4% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.7% at 0-999, 48.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (6,093 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (11,434 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (3,721 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (13,772 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (20,825 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (7,662 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (25,492 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (31,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (11,139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (237 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (37,696 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (45,153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (13,910 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (53,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (51,656 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (14,775 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (530 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (61,807 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (54,743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (13,650 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (519 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (49,623 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (50,028 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (7,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (39,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (13,582 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,812 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7,989 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,350 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
48.0%
Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit
50.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation
54.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense
52.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack
46.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Rasa-Studier Gambit
48.5%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit scores 52.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.7% and 52.9% — from 652K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
652K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate?

Playing the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 652K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (107K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (280K games) against 51.7% in Rapid (74K games).

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 98K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 121K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 47.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 935 Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 295K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 280K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 74K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.0% of its games and loses 45.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.