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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation

514K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.4%

40%55%
Floor44.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.6%.

Measured over 514K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 514K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
514K
Best context
51.5% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
37.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.9% at 0-999, 38.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (7,712 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (20,013 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (6,464 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (13,757 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (29,843 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (11,641 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (20,420 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (36,280 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (14,818 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (375 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (156 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (26,778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (47,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (16,221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (548 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (31,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (56,511 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (18,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (615 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (84 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (30,324 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (52,185 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (16,423 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (393 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (20,194 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (17,443 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (4,386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.3% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (8,440 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (408 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (835 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (51 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
48.0%
Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit
50.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit
51.0%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense
52.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack
46.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Rasa-Studier Gambit
48.5%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation scores 44.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.3% and 44.6% — from 514K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
514K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate?

Playing the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 514K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (34K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.4% in Blitz (262K games) against 44.3% in Rapid (89K games).

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 59.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.4%. It rests on 886 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 44.0%, draws 1.0% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 550 Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 160K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 262K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 89K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.9% of its games and loses 54.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.