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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation

514K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.4%Range (90% confident): 44.3% – 44.6%Based on 514K games
0%44.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.3% – 44.6%
Outcome Distribution
42.9%3.0%54.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f5
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation
Analyzen=514K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 44.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.3% and 44.6%), based on 514K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (34,240 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (55,402 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (71,969 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.0% win rate (90,749 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.4% win rate (107,372 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.9% win rate (99,409 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.5% win rate (42,111 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.2% win rate (11,615 games)
  • 2500+: 36.2% win rate (886 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.0% win rate (550 games)
  • Bullet: 43.5% win rate (159,603 games)
  • Blitz: 42.8% win rate (262,133 games)
  • Rapid: 42.4% win rate (89,307 games)
  • Classical: 41.8% win rate (2,160 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (7,712 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (20,013 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (6,464 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (13,757 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (29,843 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (11,641 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (20,420 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (36,280 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (14,818 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (375 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (156 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (26,778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (47,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (16,221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (548 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (31,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (56,511 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (18,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (615 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (84 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (30,324 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (52,185 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (16,423 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (393 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (20,194 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (17,443 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (4,386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.3% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (8,440 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (408 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (835 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (51 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
48.0%
Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit
50.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit
51.0%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Zeller Defense
52.7%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack
46.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Rasa-Studier Gambit
48.5%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 514K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 57.1% win rate for white (42K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (55.0%) by -0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 55.8%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 59.4% (90% CI: 56.7%-62.1%) win rate for white, based on 886 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-58.5%) win rate for white (550 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.6%) win rate for white (160K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.1%) win rate for white (262K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (89K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.0%-56.5%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Netherlands Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.1% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.