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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense

280K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.4%Range (90% confident): 43.3% – 43.6%Based on 280K games
0%43.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.3% – 43.6%
Outcome Distribution
41.9%3.1%55.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e6
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense
Analyzen=280K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 43.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.3% and 43.6%), based on 280K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.9% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (8,799 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.2% win rate (14,089 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.5% win rate (24,452 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.7% win rate (40,762 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.1% win rate (57,158 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.1% win rate (61,523 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.6% win rate (45,969 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.2% win rate (24,449 games)
  • 2500+: 40.3% win rate (3,037 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (48%), worst in Bullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.4% win rate (2,315 games)
  • Bullet: 40.8% win rate (142,350 games)
  • Blitz: 42.5% win rate (105,136 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (29,604 games)
  • Classical: 48.1% win rate (833 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,851 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (4,760 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (2,164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (4,196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (6,998 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (2,799 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (9,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (11,268 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (3,761 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (101 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (411 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (15,720 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (18,739 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (5,719 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (173 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (24,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (24,100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (7,556 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (398 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (30,428 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (24,818 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (5,682 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.5% expected score (116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (31,741 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (12,346 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (1,713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (22,149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (2,062 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (2,986 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Vienna Defense
49.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: O'Kelly Defense
53.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Lamb Defense
47.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Langeheinicke Defense
49.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit
47.7%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 280K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (46K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (56.7%) outperforms Classical (46.8%) by 9.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 53.4%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 53.7%-57.1%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.5%-56.9%) win rate for white (142K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.1%) win rate for white (105K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.2%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.6%) win rate for white (833 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense is statistically favors white with a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.