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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.1%

45%55%
Floor49.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.5%.

Measured over 55K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 55K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
55K
Best context
56.3% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
38.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +4.7% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 94.7 · Trap factor: +10.5 · 55K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.9% at 0-999, 29.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (326 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (670 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (355 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (678 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,025 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,924 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (792 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (3,628 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,346 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (3,193 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (4,916 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (2,082 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,232 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (6,825 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,049 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (63 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (4,483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (4,695 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (3,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (1,758 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (179 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (842 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 17.5% expected score (160 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Vienna Defense
49.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense
55.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: O'Kelly Defense
53.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Lamb Defense
47.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Langeheinicke Defense
49.4%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.8% and 50.5% — from 55K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
55K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate?

Playing the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 54.1% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (26K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (8.2K games).

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 32.8%, draws 6.4% and loses 60.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.0%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 463 Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 225 Lichess games.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.9% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.