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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 50.5%Based on 55K games
0%50.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 50.5%
Outcome Distribution
47.9%4.3%47.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e5
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit
Analyzen=55K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 50.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 50.5%), based on 55K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +4.7% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 94.7 · Trap factor: +10.5 · n=55K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.1% win rate (1,357 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.2% win rate (2,209 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (4,116 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.6% win rate (7,024 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.4% win rate (10,467 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (13,285 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.5% win rate (10,103 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (5,850 games)
  • 2500+: 32.8% win rate (1,003 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.7% win rate (463 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (20,963 games)
  • Blitz: 46.9% win rate (25,601 games)
  • Rapid: 48.5% win rate (8,162 games)
  • Classical: 41.3% win rate (225 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (326 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (670 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (355 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (678 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,025 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,924 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (792 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (3,628 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,346 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (3,193 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (4,916 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (2,082 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,232 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (6,825 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,049 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (63 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (4,483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (4,695 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (3,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (1,758 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (179 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (842 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 17.5% expected score (160 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Vienna Defense
49.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Weinsbach Defense
55.1%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: O'Kelly Defense
53.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Lamb Defense
47.6%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Langeheinicke Defense
49.4%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 60.8% win rate for white (1.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.8%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 42.4%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.4%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 60.8% (90% CI: 58.2%-63.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (463 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.1%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.9%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.3%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-58.6%) win rate for white (225 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Elbert Countergambit is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.