4.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 47.6%), based on 4.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 42%
Best in Classical (48%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 57.1% win rate for white (388 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (53.3%) outperforms Rapid (48.9%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 43.9% (90% CI: 38.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 53.0%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 388 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 581 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 738 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 807 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 617 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 353 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 236 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-53.0%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Blitz games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-55.2%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Rapid games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.2%-51.7%) win rate for white (893 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Declined: Gedult Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.