421K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.1%), based on 421K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 45% → 54%
Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 421K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.2% win rate for white (8.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.3%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.3%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 43.6%-53.0%) win rate for white (306 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.0%) win rate for white (105K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white (240K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.7%) win rate for white (73K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.