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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation

6.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.2%Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.2%Based on 6.7M games
0%51.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%4.0%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.e5
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
Analyzen=6.7M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 51.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 51.2%), based on 6.7M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.2% win rate (213,708 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (518,695 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (886,655 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.9% win rate (1,248,105 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (1,473,786 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.3% win rate (1,305,956 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (708,783 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (283,728 games)
  • 2500+: 53.0% win rate (45,503 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.9% win rate (12,559 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (1,894,739 games)
  • Blitz: 48.8% win rate (3,557,242 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (1,176,267 games)
  • Classical: 48.4% win rate (44,112 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.0% expected score (109 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (55,145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (120,388 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (37,929 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (137 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (365 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (125,399 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (280,756 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (111,024 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (917 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (216,437 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (468,450 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (195,933 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (4,918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (3,156 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (306,253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (669,965 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (256,864 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (11,867 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (3,459 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (362,883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (816,075 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (276,186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (15,183 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (2,330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (367,037 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (720,579 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (207,321 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8,689 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (1,628 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (273,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (356,641 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (75,467 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,782 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (566 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (154,887 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (113,393 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (14,714 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 66.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (33,433 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (10,995 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (829 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (217 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (8)
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack
51.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation
51.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack
46.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation
48.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation
53.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack
48.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
47.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (46K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.8%) outperforms Classical (48.4%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 214K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 519K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 887K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 709K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 284K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.6%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-48.8%) win rate for white (3.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.