9.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 52.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.2%), based on 9.3M Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 49% → 52%
Similar across time controls (~51%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.3M rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (131K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.5%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 297K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 743K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 707K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 131K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.7%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.7%) win rate for white (3.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white (4.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.1%) win rate for white (53K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.