3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 49.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 49.9%), based on 3.2M Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~45%)
Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (591K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
UltraBullet (53.9%) outperforms Classical (43.8%) by 10.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 272K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 405K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 536K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 605K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 591K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 468K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 234K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.8%) win rate for white (8.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.4%) win rate for white (962K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (1.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.4%) win rate for white (645K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.