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Analyzer

Bogo-Indian Defense

10 variations · 629K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bogo-Indian Defense leaves Black at 47.5% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -5.2% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score47.5%Aggregated from 10 variationsWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%47.5%55%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 47.6%
Min adv-5.2%
ContextOverall · n=629K
Outcome Distribution
3...Bb4+
Bogo-Indian Defense
Variations10
Games (Context)629K
Avg Length38 moves
Draw Rate7.2%

Games (Context) — games matching the current filter

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins VariationTop Pick
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 c5
Min adv -2.1% · n=33K
49.5%
#2Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 Qe7
Min adv -2.4% · n=122K
49.0%
#3Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5
Min adv -4.4% · n=61K
48.2%
#4Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 Be7
Min adv -4.6% · n=95K
48.0%
#5Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 Bxd2+
Min adv -6.3% · n=158K
47.1%
#6Bogo-Indian Defense: Haiti Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 Nc6
Min adv -12.6% · n=9.8K
44.5%
#7Bogo-Indian Defense
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+
Min adv -20.7% · n=5.6K
40.8%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

Overall, the Bogo-Indian Defense family has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 47.6%), aggregated from 10 variations and 629K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.9% win rate (2,358 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.2% win rate (6,660 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.2% win rate (15,607 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.9% win rate (32,556 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.1% win rate (59,335 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (105,892 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (161,957 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.6% win rate (188,172 games)
  • 2500+: 37.1% win rate (56,494 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.4% win rate (721 games)
  • Bullet: 44.7% win rate (170,695 games)
  • Blitz: 43.8% win rate (388,809 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (64,956 games)
  • Classical: 40.6% win rate (3,850 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (691 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (500 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,201 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,382 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,035 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (4,839 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (8,248 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,366 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (9,488 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (17,384 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (5,197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (290 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (17,674 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (32,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (8,504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (198 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (24,637 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (65,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (14,636 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (31,904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (110,958 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (18,079 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (947 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (50,932 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (123,819 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (13,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (345 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (28,329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (26,458 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (1,575 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (132 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (10)

Ranked by Min adv — the worst-case edge over 50% we're 90% confident you keep.

1
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation33K games
49.5%min -2.1%
2
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation122K games
49.0%min -2.4%
3
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation61K games
48.2%min -4.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation95K games
48.0%min -4.6%
Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation561 games
50.8%min -5.3%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation158K games
47.1%min -6.3%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation144K games
46.1%min -8.3%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Haiti Variation9.8K games
44.5%min -12.6%
Bogo-Indian Defense5.6K games
40.8%min -20.7%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap110 games
36.1%min -42.3%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense family has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, aggregated from 10 variations and 629K rated games from Lichess.

How many Bogo-Indian Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 10 Bogo-Indian Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (16K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.4%) by 0.8% across all Bogo-Indian Defense variations.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense?

Bogo-Indian Defense games are 92.8% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 38 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense a good opening family?

The Bogo-Indian Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 10 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.