Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation
561 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.
Measured over 561 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 561 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 561
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.9%
- Draws
- 6.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 53.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (27 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (89 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 70.9% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (103 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation scores 49.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.8% and 52.7% — from 561 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 561+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation win rate?
Playing the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation, White wins 46.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 561 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation perform best?
The Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (139 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (346 games) against 50.0% in Rapid (94 games).
How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation?
The Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 139 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 44.9%, draws 8.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 109 Lichess games.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 42.4%, draws 7.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 346 Lichess games.
Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation a good opening?
The Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.1% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.