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Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation

144K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.0%

45%60%
Floor53.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.

Measured over 144K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 144K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
144K
Best context
57.9% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
50.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
93.2%
Draws
6.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 62.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (133 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (360 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (132 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 90.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (649 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (992 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (288 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (2,072 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (593 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (2,175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,774 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (10,857 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (2,019 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (6,735 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (26,874 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (3,139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (13,509 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (41,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (3,281 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (8,039 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (8,614 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (357 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.2% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
47.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
46.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
48.6%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
47.1%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 54.2% — from 144K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
144K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate?

Playing the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation, White wins 50.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 144K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.0% in Blitz (95K games) against 56.7% in Rapid (11K games).

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 56.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 252 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 54.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 771 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.6%, draws 6.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.7%, draws 9.2% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.3%, draws 7.4% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 95K Lichess games.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.7%, draws 7.9% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.4%, draws 13.6% and loses 36.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 599 Lichess games.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.5% of its games and loses 42.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.