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Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation

144K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.2%Based on 144K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
50.5%6.8%42.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nbd2
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
Analyzen=144K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.8%

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 54.2%), based on 144K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.2% win rate (252 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.7% win rate (771 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.9% win rate (1,943 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.1% win rate (3,889 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (7,122 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (17,394 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.6% win rate (36,928 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (58,178 games)
  • 2500+: 51.7% win rate (17,031 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (53%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.3% win rate (72 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (36,936 games)
  • Blitz: 50.3% win rate (94,978 games)
  • Rapid: 52.7% win rate (10,923 games)
  • Classical: 50.4% win rate (599 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (133 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (360 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (132 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 90.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (649 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (992 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (288 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (2,072 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (593 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (2,175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,774 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (10,857 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (2,019 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (6,735 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (26,874 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (3,139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (13,509 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (41,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (3,281 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (8,039 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (8,614 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (357 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.2% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Haiti Variation
53.3%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap
57.8%
Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation
46.1%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
47.4%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 144K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.3%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 252 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.7%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 771 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.8%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white (95K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.5%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-53.7%) win rate for white (599 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.6%.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.