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Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation

95K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation leaves Black at 48.0% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -4.6% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score48.0%Based on 95K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%48.0%55%
Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 48.3%
Min adv-4.6%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=95K
Outcome Distribution
8...c6
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
Analyzen=95K
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness89%
Draw Rate11.2%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 48.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 48.3%), based on 95K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 28%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.8% win rate (159 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (521 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (1,546 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (3,733 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.8% win rate (7,541 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (15,469 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (25,017 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (27,247 games)
  • 2500+: 28.0% win rate (14,166 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.2% win rate (311 games)
  • Bullet: 41.1% win rate (25,500 games)
  • Blitz: 42.9% win rate (57,299 games)
  • Rapid: 42.6% win rate (11,567 games)
  • Classical: 41.0% win rate (722 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (79 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (167 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (290 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (526 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (784 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 66.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,905 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (536 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,396 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (3,850 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,083 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,298 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (9,569 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,310 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (4,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (16,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3,723 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (6,706 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (17,668 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (6,667 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (6,575 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (822 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (102 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
50.5%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
47.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
48.6%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
47.1%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 95K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 49.8% win rate for white (7.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.5%) outperforms Classical (39.3%) by 8.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 88.8 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 38.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 521 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 33.9% (90% CI: 33.2%-34.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 52 moves with a 38.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 42.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (311 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.9%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.5%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.8%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.7%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.4%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation has a 39.3% (90% CI: 36.4%-42.3%) win rate for white (722 Lichess games). Draw rate is 19.7%.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.