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Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation is balanced for Black at 49.5% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.5%Based on 33K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.5%55%
Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.9%
Min adv-2.1%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=33K
Outcome Distribution
4...c5
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.9%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 49.9%), based on 33K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 59% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 58.8% win rate (47 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (163 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.1% win rate (511 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.3% win rate (1,168 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (2,432 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (5,174 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (8,647 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.4% win rate (12,209 games)
  • 2500+: 42.8% win rate (2,973 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 46.9% win rate (8,253 games)
  • Blitz: 45.8% win rate (22,107 games)
  • Rapid: 45.1% win rate (2,774 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (184 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (277 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (675 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (633 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,456 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,014 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (3,426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (5,885 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (820 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (8,537 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (650 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,727 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 24.7% expected score (34 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
50.5%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
47.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
46.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
48.6%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (5.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.6%) outperforms Classical (46.1%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 42.5%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 163 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 511 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.6%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.2%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (184 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.7%.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.