Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 33K
- Best context
- 52.9% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.1%
- Draws
- 6.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.0% at 0-999, 40.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (87 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (149 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (296 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (277 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (675 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (197 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (633 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,456 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (314 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,014 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (3,426 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (671 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,888 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (5,885 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (820 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,999 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (8,537 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (650 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,212 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,727 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 24.7% expected score (34 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation scores 49.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.9% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate?
Playing the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation perform best?
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.2% (8.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (22K games) against 49.2% in Rapid (2.8K games).
How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation?
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 163 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 511 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.4%, draws 8.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.8%, draws 10.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.8%, draws 7.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.1%, draws 8.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 12.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 184 Lichess games.
Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation a good opening?
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.0% of its games and loses 47.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.