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Analyzer

Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation

122K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation is balanced for Black at 49.0% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.0%Based on 122K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.0%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.3%
Min adv-2.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=122K
Outcome Distribution
4...Qe7
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
Analyzen=122K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.2%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.3%), based on 122K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~41%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.4% win rate (106 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (366 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.2% win rate (989 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (2,925 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (7,317 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (17,903 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (36,967 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (43,668 games)
  • 2500+: 40.8% win rate (11,442 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.8% win rate (23 games)
  • Bullet: 46.5% win rate (30,162 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (80,654 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (10,286 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (558 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (176 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (270 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (578 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (133 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (857 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,182 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (852 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (3,439 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (12,107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (2,169 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (181 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (6,037 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (27,221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3,531 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (178 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (11,274 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (29,400 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,923 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (5,911 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (5,341 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
50.5%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
46.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
48.6%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
47.1%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 122K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (989 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.6%) outperforms Classical (43.3%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 92.8 (decisive), meaning 92.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 48.4%-64.0%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 366 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 989 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.0%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.4%) win rate for white (81K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.4%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.2%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 39.9%-46.8%) win rate for white (558 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.5%.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.