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Analyzer

Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation

158K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation leaves Black at 47.1% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -6.3% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score47.1%Based on 158K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%47.1%55%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.3%
Min adv-6.3%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=158K
Outcome Distribution
4...Bxd2+
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=158K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 47.3%), based on 158K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.6% win rate (1,043 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (3,432 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.3% win rate (8,210 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.0% win rate (16,620 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.0% win rate (27,887 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (37,129 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.4% win rate (34,519 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.0% win rate (24,236 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (5,199 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (196 games)
  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (50,563 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (84,871 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (21,337 games)
  • Classical: 40.2% win rate (1,308 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (383 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (507 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,265 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,692 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (463 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,738 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,018 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (8,840 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (2,546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (8,359 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (15,062 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (4,038 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (354 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (9,625 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (21,148 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (5,846 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (9,166 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (20,067 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (5,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (10,420 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (11,759 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (2,006 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (3,589 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
50.5%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
47.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
46.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
48.6%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
47.1%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 158K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.4%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 42.5%-54.2%) win rate for white (196 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.0%) win rate for white (85K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.5%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.6%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.