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Analyzer

Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation

61K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation is balanced for Black at 48.2% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score48.2%Based on 61K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%48.2%55%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.5%
Min adv-4.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=61K
Outcome Distribution
4...a5
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation
Analyzen=61K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.5%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.5%), based on 61K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.7% win rate (176 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.9% win rate (455 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (924 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.5% win rate (1,886 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (4,034 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (9,452 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (17,419 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (21,132 games)
  • 2500+: 39.6% win rate (5,351 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (14,480 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (40,720 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (5,330 games)
  • Classical: 41.4% win rate (297 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (90 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (275 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (200 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (549 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (417 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,066 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (378 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (627 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (2,050 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (6,228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,765 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (13,041 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (112 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (5,202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (14,573 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (2,639 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (2,602 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bogo-Indian Defense
57.5%
Variations (5)
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
50.5%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
47.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation
46.4%
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation
47.1%
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 61K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation perform best?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (5.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (48.4%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 42.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 176 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 455 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 924 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.3%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.1%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-53.2%) win rate for white (297 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.

Is the Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation a good opening?

The Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.