110 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap has a 63.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.4% and 71.2%), based on 110 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 69% → 58%
Best in Bullet (66%), worst in Rapid (52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap has a 57.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-65.4%) win rate for white, based on 110 rated games from Lichess.
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (59 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap has a sharpness score of 87.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 87.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
The Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap is statistically favors white with a 57.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-65.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.