447K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.2%), based on 447K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 45% → 51%
Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 447K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.9%) outperforms Classical (44.2%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-57.8%) win rate for white (203 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.1%) win rate for white (99K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.6%) win rate for white (244K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.6%) win rate for white (99K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.5%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.