1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 46.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 46.9%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 49%
Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.1% win rate for white (23K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (45.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.3%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 41.6%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 133K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 226K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 278K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 214K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 38.8%-47.8%) win rate for white (323 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.3%) win rate for white (383K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-44.6%) win rate for white (552K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.0%) win rate for white (153K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-42.2%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.