Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation

1.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Playable

White Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.2%Based on 1.7M games

0%50.1%100%

Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.2%

Outcome Distribution

47.4%5.4%47.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

4.Bxc6

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation

Analyzen=1.7M

Avg Length35 moves

Sharpness95%

Draw Rate5.4%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 50.2%), based on 1.7M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 52%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (24,695 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (60,802 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (26,713 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (191 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 75.5% expected score (28 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (42,400 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (138,718 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (63,312 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (980 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (49,351 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (184,908 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (101,098 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (3,587 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (49,601 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (185,558 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (108,746 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (6,755 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (41,468 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (153,944 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (82,117 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (5,849 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (30,897 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (116,391 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (43,626 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (2,172 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (21,113 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (58,546 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (15,926 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (306 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (14,932 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (20,155 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (2,876 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (4,561 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,586 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.4% expected score (102 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Ruy Lopez

51.9%

Variations (5)

Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense

55.9%

Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit

53.0%

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense

49.9%

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation

48.6%

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall

12.2%

Continuations (9)

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit

45.4%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation

47.5%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation

47.4%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Gligoric Variation

49.0%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation

51.0%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, King's Bishop Variation

54.0%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation

56.0%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation

51.3%

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation

48.1%

Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (6.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (44.2%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 245K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 339K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 351K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 283K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 193K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 96K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-62.0%) win rate for white (122 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.3%) win rate for white (279K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.5%) win rate for white (921K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.0%) win rate for white (445K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.7%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation expected score for White?