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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense

2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.1%Based on 2.7M games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%3.5%52.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Bf5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
Analyzen=2.7M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 46.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 46.1%), based on 2.7M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...c5? · Black wins: 51.5% · n=1.5M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.9% win rate (51,952 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (150,621 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.3% win rate (345,758 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.9% win rate (632,004 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.2% win rate (749,715 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.2% win rate (538,384 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.4% win rate (187,876 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (49,508 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (4,847 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.2% win rate (4,740 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (1,017,570 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (1,374,877 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (305,780 games)
  • Classical: 38.8% win rate (7,698 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (126 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (21,004 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (24,018 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (6,767 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (364 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (61,525 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (72,032 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (16,498 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (128,418 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (177,772 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (37,837 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (977 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (1,724 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (217,838 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (336,775 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (73,368 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (2,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (244,111 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (410,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (91,828 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (2,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (427 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (204,286 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (268,996 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (63,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (105,358 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (67,819 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (14,220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (31,001 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (16,678 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,777 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 26.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (4,029 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (767 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (50 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Continuations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Slav
49.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack
56.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred
53.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit
47.7%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (188K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.1%) outperforms Blitz (52.0%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 151K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 346K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 632K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 750K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 538K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 188K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.1%-56.5%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.5%) win rate for white (1.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.1%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.9%) win rate for white (306K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.2%-58.0%) win rate for white (7.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.