187K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 54.0%), based on 187K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~52%)
Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 187K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (33K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (52.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.2%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 346 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.4%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate for white (101K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.8%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-54.2%) win rate for white (738 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.