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Italian Game: Evans Gambit

174K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.6%Range (90% confident): 58.4% – 58.8%Based on 174K games
0%58.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.4% – 58.8%
Outcome Distribution
57.3%2.6%40.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...d6
Italian Game: Evans Gambit
Analyzen=174K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.6%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 58.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.4% and 58.8%), based on 174K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +23.5% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 56% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.8% win rate (6,711 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.8% win rate (17,732 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.0% win rate (30,068 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.5% win rate (36,635 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.3% win rate (36,642 games)
  • 1800-1999: 57.3% win rate (29,097 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.9% win rate (13,372 games)
  • 2200-2499: 61.2% win rate (3,658 games)
  • 2500+: 59.7% win rate (316 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in UltraBullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (86 games)
  • Bullet: 57.4% win rate (66,540 games)
  • Blitz: 57.6% win rate (79,643 games)
  • Rapid: 56.1% win rate (27,006 games)
  • Classical: 58.3% win rate (956 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (2,893 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (2,541 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (1,261 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (7,461 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (7,178 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (3,048 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (11,467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (13,221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (5,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (12,989 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (16,996 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (6,345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (12,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (17,871 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (5,502 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (10,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (14,589 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (3,997 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (5,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (6,200 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (2,452 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (1,002 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (269 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Continuations (10)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation
43.0%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Defense
45.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Variation
50.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Variation, Cordel Line
43.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense
46.7%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense
57.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense, Main Line
48.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense
47.4%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit
60.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fraser Attack
53.8%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.3% (90% CI: 57.1%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 174K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 61.2% win rate for white (3.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (57.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.7%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.8%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.1%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.5% (90% CI: 57.0%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.8%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.9% (90% CI: 57.2%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 61.2% (90% CI: 59.9%-62.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 59.7% (90% CI: 55.1%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 316 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.4% (90% CI: 57.1%-57.8%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 57.6% (90% CI: 57.3%-57.9%) win rate for white (80K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.6%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a 58.3% (90% CI: 55.7%-60.9%) win rate for white (956 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit is statistically favors white with a 57.3% (90% CI: 57.1%-57.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.