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Which gambits still win at your level?

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Height: the share with a Floor above 50

More gambits win as ratings rise.

Under 1000, 29% of White’s gambits win more than they lose; at 2500+, 80% do.

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A gambit you choose ends on its own side’s move by move 4, with no gambit before it on its line.

Play gambits? See which of your openings lose most.

Leaks reads your recent games and lists the openings you score worst in.

Analyze a positionLoad a gambit and see what each move scores at your level

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Methodology

More gambits win as ratings rise. Under 1000, 29% of White’s gambits win more than they lose; at 2500+, 80% do. Scope: White’s chosen gambits, every clock; own-side move by move 4, no prior gambit. Sample: 86 qualifying gambit lines at 0-999, 66 at 2500+. Rated Lichess games played September 2023 to August 2026. TrueElo analysis of Lichess data.

These samples count named lines, not independent games. The curve counts lines with a Floor above 50.

When citing manually, include the source URL and your access date.

https://trueelo.app/stats/gambits
How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3B+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-09 to 2026-08). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt September 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
What the Floor and Edge at worst are
The Floor is the worst score you would still get, 90% confident: the low end of a figure’s range, not its average. Edge at worst is how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident, so above zero, that side wins more than it loses even on a bad day. Each is stated for the rating and clock shown, over the games that reached the position. They are on different scales: a score sits at 50 when the sides are level, an edge at zero.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 100 games at a rating and clock to print a figure there, and 1.0K games to count on the curve or lead the list; under that it is drawn faint. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do gambits stop working at higher ratings?

Not in these games: more of them win as ratings rise. Under 1000, 29% of White’s gambits a player chooses win more than they lose; at 2500+, 80% do. For Black’s, 6% and 59%.

Which gambit wins most at my rating?

The list ranks them by Floor at the rating and clock you choose. Across every level, Bishop's Opening: Lewis Gambit leads White’s.

Which gambits does the list show?

288 gambits a player chooses: each ends on its own side’s move by move 4, with no gambit before it on its line. Every gambit line shows all 1,088, with the traps and follow-ups that need the opponent’s mistakes first.

How is it measured?

From the side that plays the gambit, at that side’s rating, in rated Lichess games. A gambit wins more than it loses at a rating when its Floor there is above 50: the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.