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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation

327K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.2%Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.3%Based on 327K games
0%51.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.6%5.1%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Nb3
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation
Analyzen=327K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 51.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 51.3%), based on 327K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.2% win rate (431 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (2,187 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (7,525 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.7% win rate (22,169 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (53,516 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (93,211 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.2% win rate (86,262 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.2% win rate (53,084 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (8,844 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.5% win rate (34 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (97,521 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (188,754 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (38,798 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (2,122 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (223 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (155 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,205 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (765 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (207 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,579 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (768 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (8,366 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (10,959 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (2,678 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (14,630 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (31,706 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (6,725 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (450 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (19,484 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (60,377 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (12,483 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (21,805 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (52,220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (11,717 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (519 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (21,599 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (27,315 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (4,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (6,630 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (2,110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (8)
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation
51.7%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Battery Variation
46.7%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation
50.5%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line
44.4%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line
49.4%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation
55.2%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Tartakower Line
49.8%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 327K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 49.7% win rate for white (22K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (46.4%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 431 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 93K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 86K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate for white (98K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.4%) win rate for white (189K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.1%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.