117K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 51.9%), based on 117K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~50%)
Best in UltraBullet (78%), worst in Classical (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 117K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Classical (41.6%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.6%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.9%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.3%) win rate for white (68K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.3%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 41.6% (90% CI: 38.4%-44.8%) win rate for white (630 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.0%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.