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Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation

524K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 51.8%Based on 524K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 51.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%5.7%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nd7
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation
Analyzen=524K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 51.8%), based on 524K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.6% win rate (2,525 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.6% win rate (5,231 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (12,504 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.9% win rate (30,578 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (73,415 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.9% win rate (140,183 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (145,194 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.0% win rate (95,303 games)
  • 2500+: 51.1% win rate (18,945 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.9% win rate (292 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (185,905 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (276,459 games)
  • Rapid: 47.9% win rate (57,851 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (3,371 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (715 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,194 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (611 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,941 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,037 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,224 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (4,745 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (5,446 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (2,214 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (10,840 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (14,694 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (4,626 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (376 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (64 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (22,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (41,489 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (8,923 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (868 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (35,751 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (85,338 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (17,788 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (1,219 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (42,509 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (85,160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (16,793 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (672 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (51,113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (38,533 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (5,529 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (16,220 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (2,568 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (143 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (7)
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line
48.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation
56.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense
56.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack
49.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation
52.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line
53.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack
48.5%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 524K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.1% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 140K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 145K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 44.1%-53.7%) win rate for white (292 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.8%) win rate for white (186K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white (276K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.3%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.8%-44.7%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.