112K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 46.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 46.6%), based on 112K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 52% → 50%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 112K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (46.9%) outperforms Classical (36.7%) by 10.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 40.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 528 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 42.7% (90% CI: 40.9%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.6%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 42.7%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.4%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.1%) win rate for white (68K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 39.3% (90% CI: 38.6%-40.0%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense has a 36.7% (90% CI: 33.2%-40.2%) win rate for white (518 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense is slightly favors black with a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.