Latvian Gambit
25 variations · 2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
49.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 2.7M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.7M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #11 of 62
- Games in this context
- 2.7M
- Best context
- 53.9% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 38.4% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
- Variations measured
- 25
- Average game length
- 30 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.5% at 0-999, 47.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (267 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (39,603 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (63,890 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (33,052 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (262 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (521 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (66,426 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (103,675 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (41,214 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (870 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (1,075 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (112,579 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (154,153 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (56,721 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,678 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (3,400 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (144,111 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (217,244 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (62,199 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (3,157 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (2,118 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (191,334 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (273,603 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (57,222 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (3,732 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.4% expected score (620 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (221,916 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (270,312 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (48,010 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (2,245 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (302 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (156,289 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (143,248 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (21,578 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (524 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (269 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (94,100 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (41,253 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (3,322 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (13,821 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (2,318 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (67 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
25 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Latvian Gambit family scores 49.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 49.7% — from 2.7M Lichess games across 25 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Latvian Gambit win rate?
Across the Latvian Gambit's 25 variations, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.7M rated games from Lichess.
How many Latvian Gambit variations are there?
25 Latvian Gambit variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Latvian Gambit perform best?
The Latvian Gambit family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (543K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Latvian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Latvian Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (1.3M games) against 46.7% in Rapid (323K games).
How sharp is the Latvian Gambit?
Latvian Gambit games are 97.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Latvian Gambit a good opening family?
The Latvian Gambit family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 48.2% and loses 48.9%. Results differ between its 25 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.