Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation
355K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.
Measured over 355K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 355K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 355K
- Best context
- 59.0% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 45.2% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.2%
- Draws
- 2.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.9% at 0-999, 57.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (64 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (5,942 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (8,314 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (4,113 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (110 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (10,045 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (13,741 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (5,183 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (102 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (245 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (16,785 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (20,532 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (7,357 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (196 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (769 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (21,704 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (27,187 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (8,055 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (358 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (532 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (30,665 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (31,651 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (6,095 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (421 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 69.4% expected score (174 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (39,246 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (27,606 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (4,132 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (178 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (62 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (28,545 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (12,614 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,456 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (63 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (15,078 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (2,817 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (153 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 68.4% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (2,219 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (107 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation scores 51.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 51.1% — from 355K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 355K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate?
Playing the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 355K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation perform best?
The Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (145K games) against 54.4% in Rapid (37K games).
How sharp is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation?
The Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 52.5%, draws 0.8% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 170K Lichess games.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 145K Lichess games.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.
What is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation a good opening?
The Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.5% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.