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Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense

53K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.1%Based on 53K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%3.5%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nc6
Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense
Analyzen=53K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 52.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.1%), based on 53K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.4% win rate (806 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (1,059 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (1,567 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.7% win rate (3,135 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.0% win rate (5,935 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.2% win rate (13,743 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.4% win rate (14,837 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.5% win rate (10,768 games)
  • 2500+: 43.4% win rate (1,283 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.2% win rate (109 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (20,441 games)
  • Blitz: 51.1% win rate (28,873 games)
  • Rapid: 48.2% win rate (3,462 games)
  • Classical: 47.1% win rate (248 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (225 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (396 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (181 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (367 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (469 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (216 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 84.8% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (622 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (721 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,286 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (353 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,541 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (2,898 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (8,932 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (995 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (4,173 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (9,644 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (955 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (6,381 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (4,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,152 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Latvian Gambit
49.8%
Variations (5)
Latvian Gambit: Mlotkowski Variation
49.5%
Latvian Gambit: Mason Countergambit
49.4%
Latvian Gambit: Mayet Attack, Morgado Defense
53.0%
Latvian Gambit: Clam Gambit
44.6%
Latvian Gambit: Mayet Attack
52.4%
Analyze Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate?

The Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 53K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense perform best?

The Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.7%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense?

The Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 806 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 38.0%-53.5%) win rate for white (109 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.3%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.4%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 41.9%-52.3%) win rate for white (248 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense a good opening?

The Latvian Gambit: Fraser Defense is slightly favors black with a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.