28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 57.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.9% and 57.8%), based on 28K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 51% → 63%
Best in Classical (58%), worst in UltraBullet (24%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 28K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 62.6% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (55.7%) outperforms Classical (57.7%) by -2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 260 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.0%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 56.6%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 62.6% (90% CI: 60.4%-64.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.5%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.5%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.1%-57.1%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 50.9%-64.3%) win rate for white (145 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.