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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit

167K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.4%

40%55%
Floor46.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.6%.

Measured over 167K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 167K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
167K
Best context
57.5% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
42.4% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.5%
Draws
5.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.0% at 0-999, 53.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (134 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (96 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (532 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (373 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,248 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (1,117 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (4,068 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (7,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (3,292 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (6,553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (19,731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (7,001 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (8,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (25,462 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (11,651 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (804 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (7,693 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (18,857 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (7,238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (363 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (8,791 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (12,499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,867 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (3,777 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (2,560 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (266 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (6)
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line
52.2%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation
56.8%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line
43.8%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation
50.6%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack
51.2%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack
47.1%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit scores 46.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.2% and 46.6% — from 167K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
167K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, White wins 43.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 167K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.8% (6.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (90K games) against 44.4% in Rapid (34K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 43.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 339 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 43.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 44.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 43.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 42.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 43.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 43.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 45.1%, draws 8.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 43.3%, draws 21.0% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 45.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 42K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 43.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 90K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 41.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 42.0%, draws 9.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 43.6% of its games and loses 50.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.