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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense

356K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.1%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.2%Based on 356K games
0%52.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.5%5.2%45.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nc6
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense
Analyzen=356K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 52.2%), based on 356K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.5% win rate (510 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.3% win rate (1,748 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (4,668 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (11,111 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (29,176 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.3% win rate (75,809 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.9% win rate (113,233 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.6% win rate (100,210 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (19,951 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.6% win rate (282 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (157,076 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (173,385 games)
  • Rapid: 47.7% win rate (24,325 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (1,348 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (203 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (250 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (813 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (731 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (199 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (2,149 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (590 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (4,486 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (5,153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (90 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (11,413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (14,495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (26,482 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (42,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (6,290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (41,176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (62,952 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (54,796 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (41,222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (4,082 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (15,558 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (4,244 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (145 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (4)
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line
50.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line
42.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line
49.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line
43.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 356K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 510 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-55.5%) win rate for white (282 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate for white (157K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (173K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-45.5%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.