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Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation

18M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 48.9%Based on 18M games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 48.9%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%4.1%49.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qd8
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
Analyzen=18M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 48.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 48.9%), based on 18M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qe6+ · Black wins: 56.1% · n=18M

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (517,451 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (1,393,382 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.0% win rate (2,532,182 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (3,748,448 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (4,334,456 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (3,377,321 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (1,608,220 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.3% win rate (624,416 games)
  • 2500+: 41.4% win rate (97,435 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.2% win rate (29,669 games)
  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (9,055,012 games)
  • Blitz: 45.3% win rate (7,462,609 games)
  • Rapid: 42.7% win rate (1,639,469 games)
  • Classical: 39.3% win rate (46,552 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (227,022 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (226,289 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (62,934 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (408 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (2,183 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (582,836 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (641,678 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (164,722 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (1,963 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (7,077 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,047,152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,178,051 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (293,641 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (6,261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (7,460 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,589,797 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (1,734,661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (401,589 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (14,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (6,492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,979,272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,931,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (402,449 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (15,109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (3,092 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,847,868 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,270,991 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (248,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (6,770 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (1,844 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,154,958 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (392,100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (58,357 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (961 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (667 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (534,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (82,595 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (7,009 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 26.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (92,094 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (5,110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.9% expected score (168 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 14.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Continuations (2)
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line
49.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation
47.8%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 18M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (97K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.3%) by 8.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 517K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 624K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.7%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.9%) win rate for white (9.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.8%) win rate for white (7.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.1%) win rate for white (1.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.3%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.