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TrueElo Chess Analyzer — practical win rates at your level

Initializing

What TrueElo does

An engine tells you what a perfect player would convert from a position. You are not that player, and neither is your opponent. TrueElo reads the same position against hundreds of millions of rated Lichess games, scoped to your level and time control, and reports what players there actually score from it.

That is the True Score. The engine’s own verdict — the Theory Score — sits beside it, never instead of it, because the two disagreeing is the whole point: a position the engine calls losing can be one you win most of the time, and the reverse happens just as often.

Set the position on the board above, pick your level and time control, and every candidate move is ranked by what it converts in practice. Star the lines you want to keep and drill them until they are automatic.

Common questions

What is True Score?
True Score is what a position is worth to you in practice: the share of games players at your level actually take from it. The engine gives you a Theory Score instead — what the position is worth under near-perfect play. Both are shown, because they often disagree.
How is win rate calculated?
From the Lichess Open Database, which Lichess releases into the public domain under CC0. TrueElo does not own those games; it owns the analysis. Games are narrowed to your level and time control, then combined with the engine’s read of the position so that a thin sample cannot outrank a thick one.
What rating should I use?
Your Lichess one. Every number on the site is scoped to the level you pick, so there is no band the site works at and others it does not — pick yours and the evidence follows. If you only have a Chess.com rating, note that Lichess ratings tend to run a few hundred points higher for the same strength.
Is TrueElo free?
Yes. No subscription, no premium tier. Signing in with a free Lichess account is what scopes every number to your level, and the analysis itself runs in your browser.
What is a Sharp position?
One where the move you pick measurably changes what you score. In a Sharp position, finding the True Move is worth the time on your clock; elsewhere any sensible move does about as well. TrueElo marks them so you know which is which.
How do I build an opening repertoire?
At each decision point, take the True Move — the one that converts best at your level once uncertainty is accounted for. Star the line and it enters your Drill schedule. Build from moves you can remember and play under a clock, not from theory you will not recall.
Why not just use raw win rates from Lichess Explorer?
Raw win rates treat a thin sample and a thick one as equals. A move that won 60% of fifty games is a weaker claim than one that won 55% of five thousand, and picking the first loses games. TrueElo ranks moves by the low end of their Confidence Band, so a move backed by little evidence cannot jump the queue on noise.
How is TrueElo different from Lichess Explorer?
Explorer shows you the raw numbers and leaves the reading to you. TrueElo does the reading: it says which move to play at your level, shows the engine’s verdict beside it, and marks the positions where the choice actually matters.

Where to go next

  • Opening statistics — win rates for every opening, by level and time control.
  • Gambit viability — which gambits still pay at which levels, and where they stop.
  • Drill — replay your starred lines until you play them without thinking.
  • About TrueElo — where the data comes from and how the numbers are built.