8.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 50.0%), based on 8.6M Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 46% → 52%
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.6M rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (56K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 5.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 217K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 560K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 946K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 385K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.2%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.8%) win rate for white (2.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate for white (4.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.8%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a 43.2% (90% CI: 42.8%-43.5%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.