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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.2%Based on 1.2M games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%4.3%43.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bg5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation
Analyzen=1.2M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 54.2%), based on 1.2M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.6% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.8% win rate (11,384 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.8% win rate (46,108 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (118,248 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (219,514 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.1% win rate (283,388 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (260,304 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (145,858 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (60,684 games)
  • 2500+: 51.6% win rate (8,401 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~53%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.6% win rate (1,540 games)
  • Bullet: 51.5% win rate (347,339 games)
  • Blitz: 52.0% win rate (622,480 games)
  • Rapid: 52.3% win rate (175,102 games)
  • Classical: 51.8% win rate (7,428 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (4,171 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (5,498 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,699 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (16,463 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (22,842 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (107 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (129 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (36,443 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (62,833 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (18,415 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (428 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.9% expected score (390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (62,496 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (118,960 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (36,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (1,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (674 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (75,286 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (157,827 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (46,915 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (2,686 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (68,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (146,861 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (42,025 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (2,221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (49,077 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (76,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (19,483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (28,876 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (28,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (3,524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (5,560 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (2,711 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (120 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Continuations (3)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation
51.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense
48.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line
49.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (46K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.6%) by -0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 118K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 220K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 283K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 260K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 146K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.7%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate for white (347K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.1%) win rate for white (622K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.5%) win rate for white (175K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.7%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.