Does Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation work for White at All Ratings?
Snapshot
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation gives White a +7.9% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is effective.
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation
White GambitSource Lichess
View As
Play This+8%All Ratings
Minimum Advantage+7.9%
White wins at least 7.9% more often than loses
Rating TrendPeak: +10.6% at 2500+
Win%51.9%
Games1.2M
Breakpoint (Overall)Never
4.Bg5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern VariationWhite Gambit
Rating
Time Control
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +6.7% | 52.8% | 2.7% | 44.5% | 11K |
| 1000-1199 | +7.7% | 52.8% | 2.9% | 44.3% | 46K |
| 1200-1399 | +8.1% | 52.7% | 3.3% | 44.1% | 118K |
| 1400-1599 | +8.2% | 52.5% | 3.5% | 44.0% | 220K |
| 1600-1799 | +8.0% | 52.1% | 4.2% | 43.8% | 283K |
| 1800-1999 | +7.4% | 51.4% | 4.8% | 43.7% | 260K |
| 2000-2199 | +6.9% | 51.0% | 5.3% | 43.7% | 146K |
| 2200-2499 | +7.0% | 50.7% | 6.2% | 43.1% | 61K |
| 2500+ | +10.6% | 51.6% | 9.2% | 39.2% | 8.4K |
Full Opening StatsSee rating/time-control breakdowns for White on the opening stats page
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation sound?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has no overall breakpoint in Lichess data, meaning White wins more than loses even at the highest rating brackets across all time controls. This is a statistically sound gambit at all levels analyzed.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for White overall, with a 4.3% draw rate and 43.8% loss rate. This is based on 1.2M games from Lichess.
What is the best rating to play the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation performs best at 2500+, where White has a minimum advantage of +10.6%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 10.6 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?
Rapid (+9.6% edge) outperforms UltraBullet (+3.6% edge) by 6.0 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation breakpoint vary by time control?
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: Never, Blitz: Never, Rapid: 2500+, Classical: 1000-1199. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation is extremely sharp with only 4.3% draws—95.7% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
Should I play the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation is viable at all rating levels in Lichess data. White maintains a statistical edge throughout. It's an excellent choice if you enjoy sharp, initiative-based play.
How do I defend against the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation is statistically challenging to defend at all levels. As Black, focus on quick development, early castling, and piece trades. Don't get greedy with extra material. Consider declining the gambit or finding a transposition if you're uncomfortable with sharp positions.
How reliable is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation data?
This analysis is based on 1.2M games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.