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Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation

1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 53.4%Based on 1.5M games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.1%4.4%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.cxd5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=1.5M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.3% and 53.4%), based on 1.5M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (8,765 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (32,026 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.6% win rate (85,313 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.3% win rate (181,897 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.5% win rate (323,171 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (402,227 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (283,646 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.8% win rate (158,057 games)
  • 2500+: 50.4% win rate (30,940 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.1% win rate (6,143 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (764,055 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (609,037 games)
  • Rapid: 50.1% win rate (121,944 games)
  • Classical: 49.3% win rate (4,863 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (4,249 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,537 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (950 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (89 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (15,570 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (13,014 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,313 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (682 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (39,001 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (36,955 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,465 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (210 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (1,852 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (77,078 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (83,469 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (18,732 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (766 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (1,880 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (135,139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (153,125 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (31,387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (1,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (179,380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (182,190 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (37,969 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,664 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (168,789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (96,675 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (17,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (118,665 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (35,522 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (3,699 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (26,184 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (4,550 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (174 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Continuations (4)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation
46.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Reshevsky Variation
52.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation
51.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (323K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (49.3%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 182K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 323K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 402K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 284K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 158K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.2%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.9%) win rate for white (764K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white (609K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (122K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.5%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.