Does Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation work for White at All Ratings?
Snapshot
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation gives White a +6.5% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is effective.
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation
White GambitSource Lichess
View As
Play This+7%All Ratings
Minimum Advantage+6.5%
White wins at least 6.5% more often than loses
Rating TrendPeak: +8.9% at 2500+
Win%51.1%
Games1.5M
Breakpoint (Overall)0-999
4.cxd5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange VariationWhite Gambit
Rating
Time Control
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | -2.6% | 48.3% | 2.6% | 49.2% | 8.8K |
| 1000-1199 | +2.7% | 50.5% | 2.6% | 46.9% | 32K |
| 1200-1399 | +3.6% | 50.6% | 2.8% | 46.5% | 85K |
| 1400-1599 | +5.4% | 51.3% | 3.2% | 45.5% | 182K |
| 1600-1799 | +6.5% | 51.5% | 3.8% | 44.7% | 323K |
| 1800-1999 | +6.7% | 51.2% | 4.5% | 44.3% | 402K |
| 2000-2199 | +7.0% | 51.1% | 5.0% | 43.9% | 284K |
| 2200-2499 | +7.0% | 50.8% | 5.8% | 43.4% | 158K |
| 2500+ | +8.9% | 50.4% | 8.9% | 40.7% | 31K |
Full Opening StatsSee rating/time-control breakdowns for White on the opening stats page
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation sound?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation breaks at 0-999 overall (all time controls)—the first rating bracket where White no longer statistically wins more than loses. Below this rating, the gambit is viable for White. Note: breakpoints vary by time control—use the filters above for specific data.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.2%) win rate for White overall, with a 4.4% draw rate and 44.5% loss rate. This is based on 1.5M games from Lichess.
What is the best rating to play the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+, where White has a minimum advantage of +8.9%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 8.9 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (+6.9% edge) outperforms UltraBullet (+0.0% edge) by 6.9 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation breakpoint vary by time control?
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: 0-999, Blitz: 0-999, Rapid: 0-999, Classical: 1200-1399. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation is extremely sharp with only 4.4% draws—95.6% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
Should I play the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation?
If you're below 0-999 overall, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation is statistically favorable for White. Above that rating, opponents defend better and the gambit's edge disappears. Consider your typical opponents' level and the time control—faster games extend the gambit's viability.
How do I defend against the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation?
As Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation becomes easier to defend at 0-999 and above. Key principles: accept the material but develop quickly, castle early, trade pieces to reduce attacking potential, and return material at the right moment to neutralize the initiative. In faster time controls, the gambit is harder to defend—consider declining or transposing if you're not prepared.
How reliable is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation data?
This analysis is based on 1.5M games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.