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Philidor Defense: Lion Variation

751K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.1%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%Based on 751K games
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%4.6%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nbd7
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
Analyzen=751K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 48.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.2%), based on 751K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (8,042 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.4% win rate (19,319 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.4% win rate (37,215 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.8% win rate (68,882 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (115,697 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.0% win rate (142,768 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (145,762 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.4% win rate (157,483 games)
  • 2500+: 48.1% win rate (56,005 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.4% win rate (1,490 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (299,859 games)
  • Blitz: 46.3% win rate (374,244 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (71,590 games)
  • Classical: 46.0% win rate (3,990 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,259 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (4,216 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,553 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (6,685 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (8,936 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,610 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (13,358 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,884 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (6,704 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (204 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (23,839 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (33,896 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (10,253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (37,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (59,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (17,415 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (1,314 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (373 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (46,368 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (78,271 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (16,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (53,894 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (80,620 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (10,480 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (405 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (218 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (79,647 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (72,906 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (4,616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (96 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (36,389 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (19,209 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (359 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Continuations (7)
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice
44.4%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Delayed Bishop Sacrifice
56.2%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line
55.0%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6
46.7%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit
53.1%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation
38.3%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lion Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 751K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.1% win rate for white (56K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (46.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.4%) by 0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 143K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 146K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 157K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.0%) win rate for white (300K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.5%) win rate for white (374K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.1%) win rate for white (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.3%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.